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Chicago’s Climate Action Plan puts our future in focus.

Monday Nov 17, 2008.     By Sharon Hoyer

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With a president-elect in place—a man who inspires hope, but who is for the time being ambiguous on matters of sustainability—the green media is turning blue over what policy changes the new White House will bring. The possible formation of a National Energy Council, headed by a cabinet-level adviser, is cause for optimism but the mess inherited by this administration is so extensive it's hard to say which rooms will get the Simple Green first. In these heady days of anticipation, with every sector vying for Mr. Obama's ear and cries of climate change filling the warming air, the Thumb would like to take a step back from lifestyle-level choices to take a gander at the big picture, in hopes of returning to our CFL bulbs, low-flow faucets and programmable thermostats with a renewed sense of purpose.

In the Google map of our imaginations, let us click the minus button to take in a complete view of our city. In September, the Chicago Climate Task Force—a body of researchers, policy-makers, community organizers and utilities—released an environmental State of the City report and strategic plan for how to shrink our collective footprint and prepare for the worst. The Chicago Climate Change Action Plan makes projections about two potential futures: one in which the world continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels and earth's atmosphere grows sodden with carbon—up to 1000 parts per million; the other a lower-carbon situation where alternative energy sources and reduced consumption halt emissions at 450 PPM. Neither scenario is particularly sunny, but the former is enough to chill the blood on the most sweltering summer day. If business continues as usual, Chicago's climate (as quantified by the US National Arboretum Plant Hardiness Zone map) will resemble that of Northern Alabama by the end of the century. Let me say that again: Chicago circa 2100 could feel like northern Alabama today. That's a seven-to-eight degree Fahrenheit hike in just one generation. Perhaps even more disturbing is the optimistic forecast, in which we can look forward to only a three-to-four degree rise in temps, resulting in a slightly less balmy southern Illinois/northern Missouri climate.

The city's projection is consistent with a report released last week by the International Energy Agency, which estimates global temperature change over the next century in three scenarios: futures of unchecked fossil fuel consumption, 550 PPM and 450 PPM. The picture here is similar, though slightly warmer (i.e. worse) and measured in centigrade.

So what does this mean for us on the ground? Skimming past grim language like "increased morbidity" and "mortality," the Chicago plan outlines potential effects on multiple fronts—on public health from heat waves, poorer air quality and disease outbreaks spread by insects from warmer climes; on agriculture from invasive pests and weeds, floods and droughts; on water systems from decreased ice levels, extensive ecosystem damage, decreased water quality and lake levels; on infrastructure from storm water damage to roads, buildings and transit, increased harbor-dredging and overworked fire, police and medical response departments.

In anticipation, the city is drafting a series of plans to manage the watershed, the urban forest and heat-wave response systems. To shrink our 34.6 million metric ton footprint, the plan includes strategies to retrofit old buildings for increased efficiency (the biggest source of emissions in Chicago), improve bike and pedestrian routes and increase the number hybrid buses in the CTA fleet. Major office buildings are invited to take the Green Office Challenge and receive monthly training in energy efficiency and waste reduction. Residents are encouraged to take the $800 Savings Challenge, saving money and energy by driving less, switching out or off light bulbs, turning off the water while brushing and other relatively painless actions.

I went to the $800 checklist with some apprehension, expecting to have already adopted most of the items listed. Some of the heavier stuff, like driving one trip less per week, were already taken care of, but the little things I hadn't gotten around to—plugging appliances into power strips, turning down the thermostat 3 degrees—added up to over a half-ton of CO2 per year. If every Chicagoan made the same simple changes, it would add up to over one and a half million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. Include the burbs and you're looking at four and a half million metric tons. And that's from minimal effort.

Last week, environmental author and scholar Bill McKibben called carbon "the most frightening stuff on earth." The statement concluded an essay, addressed in a sidelong fashion to Mr. Obama, requesting our new president to educate himself on the magnitude of an impending environmental crisis and take aggressive action. The essay was posted on 350.org, McKibben's campaign to bring atmospheric carbon levels down to 350 PPM—the red line for climate change as calculated by NASA scientist James Hanson 20 years ago. Neither the Chicago Task Force nor the IEA treated 350 as a probable future; CO2 levels are at about 387 PPM right now. However, it's the opinion of McKibben and a battalion of supporters that this figure can be reached and maintained, but it will take collective effort on a global scale. As for us in Chicago, the least we can do is start at home, one light bulb at a time.

It took a move from the regimented lawnscapes of the suburbs to the congestion of a major metropolis for Sharon to look twice at what she puts in the trash, down the sink and into her own body. She reports fortnightly on her endeavors to change "greening" from calculated deviation to a practicable way of life. You can contact her here.